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  1. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement : Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

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    The African Continental Free Trade Agreement : Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

    2019
    Abstract: In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications-comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition-are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures
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    150057-ebscobog:on1107586938|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Note: 
    Print version: Abrego, Lisandro ; African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model, Key elements of the AfCFTA -- The current state of trade in Africa -- A model for evaluating the effects of the AfCFTA -- Data and calibration -- Simulation results -- Relation to other studies -- Conclusion and policy implications
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781498318808, 9781498314398, 1498318800, 1498314392
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1107586938|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1107586938|980|a
  2. The long shadow of the global financial crisis : public interventions in the financial sector

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    The long shadow of the global financial crisis : public interventions in the financial sector

    2019
    Abstract: We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007-17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to 1.6 trillion dollar (3.5 trillion dollar including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less
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    150057-ebscobog:on1113895436|980|.
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    Print version: Igan, Deniz O. ; Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector, Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Gross Direct Interventions in the Aftermath of the Crisis; A. Data Coverage; B. Bank-Level Interventions: A First Glance; III. Remaining Public Asset Holdings in Financial Institutions; A. Remaining Asset Holdings in 2017; B. Pace of Intervention, Recovery, and Instruments; IV. Other Aspects of Interventions: Impaired Assets and Indirect Costs; A. Current Asset Holdings Including Impaired Assets; B. Fiscal Impact of Direct Interventions; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Gross Direct Interventions by Year; 2. Asset Purchases by Instrument, 3. Initial Government Stake and Bank/Country Conditions4. Peak Government Stake and Bank/Country Conditions; 5. Public Asset Holdings and Bank/Country Conditions; 6. Public Asset Holdings and Bank/Country Conditions: Big Banks; 7. Public Asset Holdings and Bank/Country Conditions: Small/Medium Banks; 8. Fiscal Impact of Government Interventions in the Financial Sector; A1. Selected Economies: Government Interventions in the Financial Sector; A2. Selected Economies: Government Interventions in the Financial Sector; Figures; 1. Cumulative Direct Interventions by Country, 2. Initial Public Holdings by Bank Characteristics3. Public Asset Holdings by Instrument; 4. Remaining Public Holdings by Bank Characteristics; 5. Bank Liabilities in Public Hands; 6. Divestment and Macroeconomic Aggregates; 7. Divestment and Financial System Characteristics; 8. Direct Holdings by Instrument Pecking Order; 9. Asset Holdings by Instrument; 10. Recovery Rate; 11. Indirect Fiscal Impact of Government Interventions; 12. Total Fiscal Impact of Government Interventions; A1. Gross Direct Interventions in Country-Level vs Bank-Level Datasets; A2. Public Asset Holdings by Instrument, A3. Bank Liabilities in Public Hands-Equity SharesA4. Bank Liabilities in Public Hands-Hybrid Securities; A5. Bank Liabilities in Public Hands-Debt; Boxes; 1. Linking Direct Interventions to Public Finances; 2. Fiscal Impact: Stock-Flow vs Cash-Flow Approaches; Appendices; I. Constructing the Bank-Level Dataset; Methodological Challenges; Case-by-Case Summaries; Australia; Austria; Belgium; Brazil; Bulgaria; Canada; Croatia; Cyprus; Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Netherlands; New Zealand, PolandPortugal; Romania; Russia; Slovak Republic; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom; United States; Cross-Country Cases; II. Fiscal Implications of Gross Direct Interventions by Country; III. Comparing the Two Datasets; IV. Additional Figures
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781513509679, 9781513508337, 1513509675, 1513508334
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1113895436|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1113895436|980|a
  3. Income inequality and government transfers in Mexico

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    Income inequality and government transfers in Mexico

    2019
    Abstract: We analyze microdata from Mexico's survey on household income and expenditures (ENIGH) to study the evolution of income inequality in Mexico over 2004-16, identify its sources, and investigate how it was affected by government social policy. We find evidence of only a small decline in inequality over this period. The observed decline may be attributed to government transfers, notably targeted cash transfers (Prospera) and non-contributory pensions. In 2016, those two programs accounted for more than two thirds of the reduction in the Gini coefficient due to government transfers. Other transfer programs such as farmland subsidies (Proagro), government scholarships, and non-monetary transfers for medical expenditures have not been as effective
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    150057-ebscobog:on1111983183|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Note: 
    Print version: Lambert, Frédéric ; Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781498326414, 1498326412
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1111983183|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1111983183|980|a
  4. Productivity drag from small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan

    • Ebog

    Productivity drag from small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan

    2019
    Abstract: Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan's modest productivity growth. Results show a substantial dispersion in firm-level productivity growth across sectors and even across firms within the same sector. SMEs, on average, exhibit lower productivity growth than non-SMEs in Japan, with smaller and older SMEs showing particularly low productivity growth. Estimates suggest that boosting productivity growth in all of the worst-performing SMEs could improve overall productivity growth by up to 1.8 percentage points. The SME credit guarantee system, SME financing constraints, demographic factors, and lack of intangible capital investment are discussed as contributors to the slow productivity growth of Japan's small and old SMEs
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    150057-ebscobog:on1111945195|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Note: 
    Print version: Colacelli, Mariana ; Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781498325455, 1498325459
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1111945195|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1111945195|980|a
  5. Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?

    • Ebog

    Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?

    2019
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of citizenship laws on economic development. We first document the evolution of citizenship laws around the world, highlighting the main features of jus soli, jus sanguinis as well as mixed regimes, and shedding light on the channels through which they could have differentiated impact on economic development. We then compile a data set of citizenship laws around the world. Using cross-country regressions, panel-data techniques, as well as the synthetic control method and subjecting the results to a battery of tests, we find robust evidence that jus soli laws-being more inclusive-lead to higher income levels than alternative citizenship rules in developing countries, though to a less extent in countries with stronger institutional environment
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    150057-ebscobog:on1085176254|980|.
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    Print version: Imam, Patrick A. ; Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?, Cover; Contents; I. INTRODUCTION; II. CITIZENSHIP LAWS: JUS SOLI VS JUS SANGUINIS; A. General Principles; B. History of Citizenship Laws by Region; C. Jus Soli vs Jus Sanguinis: Different Impact on Economic Development?; III. THE DATA, MODEL, AND ECONOMETRIC APPROACH; A. The Data and Sample; B. Model Specification; C. Econometric Strategy; IV. THE RESULTS; A. OLS Estimates; B. Panel Estimates; C. Additional Specifications; D. Accounting for the Counterfactual Using the Synthetic Control Method; V. CONCLUSION; References; Figures; 1. Citizenship Laws, 2014, 2. Real GDP Per Capita in Jus Soli and Non-Jus Soli Developing Countries, 1970-20143. Synthetic Control Method: Treatment Effect of Moving from a Jus Soli Law to a Jus Sanguinis Law; Tables; 1. Citizenship and Development: OLS Results; 2. Citizenship and Development: Panel and Instrumental Variable Estimations; 3. Citizenship and Development: Alternative Definition of Citizenship Law; 4. Citizenship and Development: Additional Control Variables; 5. Dynamics of Citizenship Laws in Developing Countries, 1948 vs. 2014; Appendix Tables; A1. Citizenship and Development: OLS Results, A2. First-Stage Regressions to Instrument the Jus Soli VariableAppendix Figures; A1. SCM Results: Real GDP per Capita (log) in Treated and Control Units, 1960-2014; A2. Placebo Tests: Treatment effect for Treated Units and Donor Pool, 1960-2014; Annex; I. Country Samples
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781484393680, 1484393686
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1085176254|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1085176254|980|a
  6. U.S. investment since the tax cuts and jobs act of 2017

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    U.S. investment since the tax cuts and jobs act of 2017

    2019
    Abstract: There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA primarily as a windfall for shareholders. We find that U.S. business investment since 2017 has grown strongly compared to pre-TCJA forecasts and that the overriding factor driving it has been the strength of expected aggregate demand. Investment has, so far, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that much of this weaker response reflects a lower sensitivity of investment to tax policy changes in the current environment of greater corporate market power. Economic policy uncertainty in 2018 played a relatively small role in dampening investment growth
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    150057-ebscobog:on1107579964|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Note: 
    Print version: Kopp, Emanuel ; U.S. Investment since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Of 2017, How has U.S. private investment performed since 2017? -- How much of the higher investment reflects the strength of aggregate demand? -- How has investment performed compared with the historical relation between tax cuts and investment? -- What may have held back investment?
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781498317771, 1498317774
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1107579964|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1107579964|980|a
  7. Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

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    Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

    2019
    Summary: Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan
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    150057-ebscobog:on1107361968|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    International Monetary Fund
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781498301206, 1498301207
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1107361968|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1107361968|980|a
  8. Credit supply and productivity growth

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    Credit supply and productivity growth

    2019
    Abstract: We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP
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    150057-ebscobog:on1104080517|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Note: 
    Print version: Manaresi, Francesco ; Credit Supply and Productivity Growth, Data -- Theoretical framework -- Credit supply shocks and firm production -- The effect of credit supply on firm productivity growth -- The interbank market collapse as a natural experiment -- Beyond measurement: channels
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781498315982, 1498315984
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1104080517|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:on1104080517|980|a
  9. Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk

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    Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk

    2017
    Abstract: This paper suggests a novel approach to assess corporate sector solvency risk. The approach uses a Bottom-Up Default Analysis that projects probabilities of default of individual firms conditional on macroeconomic conditions and financial risk factors. This allows a direct macro-financial link to assessing corporate performance and facilitates what-if scenarios. When extended with credit portfolio techniques, the approach can also assess the aggregate impact of changes in firm solvency risk on creditor banks' capital buffers under different macroeconomic scenarios. As an illustration, we apply this approach to the corporate sector of the five largest economies in Latin America
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    150057-ebscobog:ocn993053452|980|.
    Bidrag af: 
    Cheng Hoon Lim, Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
    Note: 
    Print version: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk, Cover; Contents; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. Recent Corporate Debt Developments: LA-5 Countries; A. Financial Ratio Analysis; B. Debt-at-Risk; III. The Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) Methodology: an Overview; IV. A BuDA Case Study: Adverse Commodity Shocks in LAC-5 Countries; A. Macroeconomic Scenario Design; B. Calculating Bank Provisions and Capital Buffers; V. Concluding Remarks; A. Forecasting Risk Factors; B. Projecting PDs Using BuDA; C. Calculating Bank Provisions and Capital Buffers; Tables; 1. Sustainability of Corporate Debt in the LA-5: Weak Tail Analysis, 2: Economy-Wide and Firm-Specific Risk Factors3. Required Provisions and Economic Capital; 4. National Stock Indices and Short-Term Interest Rates; Figures; 1. Bond and Loan Debt by Non-Financial Corporates; 2. LA5: Banks and Non-Financial Corporate Sector; 3. LA-5: Non-Financial Corporate Debt, 2000-15; 4. Debt at Risk; 5. BuDA and Banks' Buffer Needs: Conceptual Approach; 6. Baseline GDP Growth; 7. Distress Scenario Impact on GDP Levels; 8. Baseline and Adverse Scenario: Commodity Prices, Real GDP and USD Exchange Rates; 9. Probability of Default in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781484304143, 1484304144
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:ocn993053452|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:ocn993053452|980|a
  10. Bank ownership : trends and implications

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    Bank ownership : trends and implications

    2017
    Abstract: This paper presents recent trends in bank ownership across countries and summarizes the evidence regarding the implications of bank ownership structure for bank performance and competition, financial stability, and access to finance. The evidence reviewed suggests that foreign-owned banks are more efficient than domestic banks in developing countries, promote competition in host banking sectors, and help stabilize credit when host countries face idiosyncratic shocks. But there are tradeoffs, since foreign-owned banks can transmit external shocks and might not always expand access to credit. The record on the impact of government bank ownership suggests few benefits, especially for developing countries
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    150057-ebscobog:ocn985848078|980|.
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    Print version: Cull, Robert ; Bank Ownership: Trends and Implications
    ISBN nr.: 
    9781475588163, 147558816X
    Udgiver: 
    International Monetary Fund
    Målgruppe: 
    voksenmaterialer
    By: 
    150057-ebscobog:ocn985848078|260|a
    Available: 
    150057-ebscobog:ocn985848078|980|a